Our assessment of the current situation

The Taliban insurgency now controls vast swaths of unchallenged territory including rural areas, border areas, some district centres, and important road arteries. The security situation is such that military convoys are only able to operate in the surroundings of towns and military bases. Humanitarian aid is functionally nonexistent.

The Independent Panel on Canada’s Future Role in Afghanistan was asked to investigate different options for Canada’s future policy towards Afghanistan, including the option of troop withdrawal. In this submission, The Senlis Council would like to argue that withdrawal is not an option. Leaving the country would be a national tragedy for both Afghanistan and Canada. Instead, with its key role on Afghanistan, Canada should take leadership on the international stage. It should exert a leadership role within NATO to increase both military involvement in Afghanistan, and humanitarian aid and development efforts.

Canada can and should accept this challenge. Throughout the past six years of Canada’s presence in Afghanistan, Canadian forces have done a brave job under extreme circumstances and should be commended for this. Nevertheless, Canada has been unable to maximise its impact on Afghanistan´s reconstruction and development process. Nevertheless, Canada’s substantial investment and sacrifices – currently 74 mission fatalities and many more injured – deserve a new strategic approach that will effectively foster stability, reconstruction and development in Afghanistan. Canada must establish clear objectives and corresponding measures of success for its humanitarian, development and military mission and fully commit to those objectives.

The United States has so far dominated the design and implementation of international policies in Afghanistan. The situation in southern Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly over the past two years. There is currently more fighting and more insurgency activities involving unprecedented use of suicide bombers and roadside bombs. Internally Displaced People’s camps have sprung up in and around Kandahar since the summer of 2006. Some are now controlled by the Taliban, and in others, people have been forced to move on because of the fighting. Kandahar is of the utmost strategic importance to Afghanistan and the entire region. The future of Kandahar will to a large extent determine the future of Afghanistan.

Failure in Afghanistan would strengthen extremism in the region, with dire consequences and would again give the Taliban and Al Qaeda a geo-political home. As Afghanistan represents a clear national defence issue for Canada, it is time for Canada to show maturity. There is an urgent need for new and innovative approaches that build the collaborative relationships with the Afghans necessary to enable reconstruction and development projects to be effective and to drive a wedge between the core Taliban insurgency and the Afghan population.

Building collaborative relationships and winning the hearts and minds of the local population starts with accommodating the immediate humanitarian aid and short-term development needs of the people. Supporting the Afghan government in building a better life for the population is a key role for Canada, yet Canada has failed to significantly impact on the humanitarian situation in Kandahar. The local population is increasingly doubtful of the ability of the Afghan Government to meet its security and basic social needs. Critically, the Taliban are capitalising upon growing public disillusionment with the Afghan Government and the international community. However, with a new strategic approach to the Canadian mission in Afghanistan, Canada will be able to bring a winning strategy, one that can be truly effective in both its military objectives and its reconstruction and development agenda.