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2. Dynamics of the current political situation in Somalia
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Shifting alliances and rivalries
The political situation in Somalia remains multifaceted and constantly changeable. Following the 17-year absence of a credible and functioning central government, a number of national players have striven to garner popular support by opposing foreign interference in the country and criticising the TFG for its lack of accountability. A political Islamic movement has already emerged in Somalia whilst an extremist movement is currently surfacing. Notably, opposition to the government is not homogenous. The dynamics and relationships between the main political players and armed groups are mercurial, with allies often quickly becoming rivals.
Clans: Somalia’s complex political framework
Somalia’s strong social structures also play an important part in the country’s political processes. Somalia is a lineage-based society where clan affiliation is a complex yet principle source of identity and security. In the context of Somalia’s current situation of lawlessness, these social units have been mobilised and represent a dominant political dynamic at the local and national level. Somali clans and sub-clans have neither a unified nor a consistent stance on current Somali politics. Even those clans that accept the authority of the TFG may actively oppose it on certain issues and build coalitions with other groups.
Somali politics marked by international involvement
At the same time, international stakeholders continue to intervene in the country, including through military support of opposing groups, to exert influence over Somalia’s future. Neighbouring countries and the United States have intervened in the country, either in an attempt to gain a regional stronghold or as part of the global War on Terror. In contrast, the United Nations has sought to bring about stability in the country by mobilising the African Union, and promoting a genuine conciliatory political process between all Somali parties.
“The great majority in Somalia want peace but there are some who are heavily invested in the violence and do not want a stable government in place, as it would remove power and economic wealth from them. They will attend the peace talks to put on a show but will ensure that peace is never possible.”
Businessman
Mogadishu, March 2008
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Mogadishu, March 2008
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