ICOS NEWS RELEASE
6 JUNE 2006
The tide has turned: Taliban have retaken control of southern Afghanistan – Support from local population for Central government and international military presence has been lost
British troops will need dramatic new approach to avoid a summer of carnage in Southern Afghanistan: state of war already exists
More and more farmers have returned to growing opium poppy as they give up hope of getting the help they need – bumper crop forecast for 2006
LONDON – British troops being deployed to Southern Afghanistan this summer will need a dramatic change of strategy if a summer of civil war in Southern Afghanistan is to be avoided, warned ICOS, an international security and development think tank in its latest report based on recent research in the region.
Southern Afghanistan now in a State of War
The Council said that the support of the local populations in southern Afghanistan for the international military presence and the Afghan Central Government has collapsed in recent weeks and Southern Afghanistan is now in a state of war. The people of Helmand province, where the British military are taking over from the US military, have switched camps in favour of insurgent groups, principally a wave of New Taliban who are cashing-in on the local population’s disillusionment with the foreign military presence.
“People in Southern Afghanistan are still living in extreme poverty and perceive no benefit from the new ‘democracy’,” said Reinert. “They have also received many empty promises from the international community which simply have not been kept. They have been waiting for five years for their lives to improve and this is simply not happening.”
On the contrary, attacks on people’s livelihoods through poppy eradication, the killing of civilians including women and children in military operations, and a sense of abandonment and exclusion have led to a complete breakdown of trust and support for the international military there.
“Our research shows that the local perception is that the only ones showing any real understanding for the people of Helmand and responding to their needs are the insurgent groups, notably the Taliban,” said Emmanuel Reinert, Executive Director of ICOS. “The Coalition troops are increasingly perceived as the invader and less and less as people who are there to help.”
“With several districts of Helmand now totally under Taliban control, the British troops will be facing a situation of civil war this summer,” said Reinert. “There has been a definite shift in power-dynamics in the south in the past weeks. If the British military does not address this immediately we could be looking at the ‘Iraqisation’ of Afghanistan – both in terms of the levels of violence and the types of violence used.”
British Troops will Need Dramatic New Approach
The Council said that if the UK troops are to succeed in their mission of securing Helmand, they urgently need to recuperate the support of the local population. The support of the population has been lost due to the militaristic approach of the US in the region.
“The British troops will need to regain control and order in the province if the whole of Southern Afghanistan is not to be lost to Taliban control,” said Reinert. “For this they will need to take a dramatically new approach this summer – one which is close to the people and which listens to and responds to their needs and which takes into account the real and desperate poverty of the province.”
Forced Eradication of Poppy Crops Contributed to Increase in Support for Taliban
The Report indicates that the large-scale aggressive forced eradication of poppy crops in Helmand, led by the US, had contributed in a significant way to the discontent of the local populations.
“I have been cultivating opium for 27 years, and always it was peacefully. I was only cultivating two to three jeribs, only to survive…they eradicated everything, everything that I had… Nothing was left. Everybody witnessed it.” farmer Sher Mohammad from the district of Sharwale, in Helmand is quoted as saying in the Report. “Before, we thought that those countries were the humanitarian countries, but later we discovered that they are also the biggest cheaters in the world…if they keep cheating us continuously like this, then of course, how can we trust them? They haven’t fulfilled any of the promises that they made. Not even one of them. They actually betrayed us. They gave us their word, and they didn’t keep their word.”
Despite the eradication campaigns which have been carried out in the past months, the opium harvest is expected to be even higher this year than in the past, with many farmers who had stopped growing poppy in past years returning to it. They had stopped either in respect of the ban decreed by President Karzai or because they were promised they would receive help from alternative livelihood schemes financed by the international community.
“Most farmers no longer believe that anyone is going to help them,” said Reinert. “They feel abandoned and cheated by the international community. Given this state of affairs it is hardly surprising that their loyalties have switched to the only people who they believe are showing any understanding of their needs – the Taliban.”
Helmand already has the largest area under cultivation in Afghanistan – accounting for 25% of the country’s total poppy cultivation in 2005. The research also indicated a predicted increase in 2006 of 50% in opium cultivation reaching 40,000 ha.
The Council said that there is a direct connection between the neglect of the farmers’ interests and the failure to address their extreme poverty and the state of war in Helmand now.
Kandahar Bombing and Civilian Deaths led Afghans to turn against international military
The Report released by the Council shows that 80% of the public support in Helmand is now for the insurgent forces at play there rather than for international military. The Council warned that the achievements of the reconstruction process over the past five years could now be in jeopardy.
The report notes that there are many factors which have led to the disintegration of confidence in the international community and the central government. One of these is the way in which foreign troops are perceived of as uncaring towards the value of the lives of Afghan citizens, with an increasing number of cases of civilian deaths or injuries at the hands of the coalition military.
Additionally the US unilaterally bombing Kandahar undermined the civilian population’s support for the Karzai government.
The research indicated that Afghans throughout the south were deeply alienated by the recent American bombing in Kandahar and the deaths of women and children in that bombing.
“By killing women and children, the US has lost yet more of the support of the local people,” said Reinert. “They perceive this type of action as unjustifiable and immoral.”
The Council said that the recent riots in Kabul were also an example of the increasing hostility of the Afghan people towards the international community.
“Helmand is an early warning of what the whole of Afghanistan could become if a radically different approach is not taken in the coming months.” said Reinert.
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