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Chapter I : Afghanistan's instability and the Return of the Taliban
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Deteriorating security and a new insurgency front line
Conclusions and Recommandations
Field report: Widespread instability and the Return of the Taliban
Agfhanistan's instability and the return of the Taliban
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A. Confusion and overlap of international military missions undermining security
B. The Taliban frontline now cuts through the centre of Afghanistan
C. International community's failure to disarm Afghanistan fuelling violence
D. Taliban successful propaganda and recruiting techniques
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| Summary: Deteriorating security and a new insurgency frontline
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“Beneath the surface, it is boiling”
Ahmad Fahim Hakim, Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission, August 2006
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In the five years since international military operations began, Afghanistan’s security situation has deteriorated significantly. After a period of relative calm during the first few years that followed the removal of the Taliban, violence is spreading once again throughout this country. As a consequence, many Afghans now perceive their country to be less secure than it was in 2001. Although “democratic government” is now in place, the Afghan population has not yet experienced many of the promised economic and social stability benefits of peacetime. Specifically, international military operations have failed to achieve their main objective which was to assure security and stability in Afghanistan, both essential foundations for democracy and economic development.
International military coalitions have failed to prevent the Taliban from re-gaining control over half of Afghanistan
This chapter investigates the unravelling security situation which is spreading throughout Afghanistan. The first part demonstrates how the international military commitment has failed to realise the expectations they created in 2001. Both US-led Operation Enduring Freedom and NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (NATO-ISAF) have missed the opportunity to bridge the gap between the western and the Muslim worlds. On the contrary, they are currently fuelling frustration and resentment among the Afghan population who decreasingly trust the US and NATO forces they first welcomed with hope. By focusing too much on aggressive military missions, the international community, especially the United States, had lost the battle for Afghans’ ‘hearts and minds. The second part of this chapter describes the growing insurgency currently consuming Afghanistan’s southern provinces: five years after their removal from power, the Taliban now have psychological and de facto military control of nearly half of Afghanistan. Despite concerted international military efforts, the Taliban successfully reorganised their forces, adapted their tactics, recruited and trained new combatants, and, more importantly, gained substantial support among the Afghan population. Once again, the Afghan population seems caught between two expanding military forces. Needless to say, the Afghan population has little to gain from this renewed escalation of violence.
Security situation is at its worst since 2001
After five years, Afghanistan is still not at peace. On the contrary, the Taliban have returned and the frontline is now half way through the country. Attacks are perpetrated on a daily basis; several provinces, quite safe beforehand, are becoming grounds for suicide bombings, murdering, ambushes and other threats; US and NATO troops are constantly engaged in war operations and are suffering significant losses, especially in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar; an increasing number of civilians are killed either by neo-Taliban or by international military coalition forces as collateral damage.
Insurgency now possesses its own momentum
Since 2005, the Taliban movement has gathered support and increasingly gained the ability to affect the fragile balance of power in Afghanistan. Even though the democratically-elected government is not threatened in the near-term, its legitimacy is decreasing at an alarming pace as it has demonstrated its incapacity to protect the population and guarantee its security.
Afghan people now questioning the motives behind the international military presence
The rise of the insurgency has forced international military operations to evolve once again, further blurring the distinctions between the United States-led Operation Enduring Freedom and NATO-ISAF. The lack of clarity and the militaristic approach of both missions have led the international military coalition forces into a trap. Far from being perceived as pursuing terrorists, providing security or stabilising and developing the country, all international military coalition forces are considered as the allies of the Karzai government and co-responsible for the lack of security and the spread of corruption. Rather than neutral elements fighting for the good of the Afghan people, international military coalition forces are perceived as taking sides in a civil war situation between two groups competing for power in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is spiralling into uncontrollable violence
The fight against a well-equipped guerrilla army necessitates a large fighting force. Keeping the same strategy will require NATO to extend its military presence and intensify its operation. The risk will be to expose more soldiers to death without improving significantly the security situation. On the contrary, the strategy of anti-government elements is less to win a military victory but rather to inflict significant losses so as to force NATO to leave the country or, at least, diminish its support for the central government. This spiral of violence is likely to become highly risky for NATO as anti-government elements are becoming more popular among the population. Moreover, such a scenario would likely split the country into two areas: the north and the west relatively pacified under the central government authority backed by Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek commanders; and chaotic southern and eastern provinces led by the neo-Taliban.
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Conclusions
The Taliban are back and now control half of Afghanistan
Despite the international community’s concerted five-year focus on military operations, the security situation in Afghanistan is worse than in 2001. The Taliban now have a strong grip on the southern half of the country. Afghans perceive that the US and NATO troops in southern and eastern Afghanistan are being defeated by the Taliban. The legitimacy of the international community’s presence in Afghanistan is undermined by its incapacity to protect the Afghan population.
The Shifting Security Frontline
The international community has failed to create a stable and secure Afghanistan
The international military coalition forces operating in Afghanistan have failed to achieve their 2001 objectives: guaranteeing a secure and stable Afghanistan. The country is neither secure nor stable; it is on the verge of collapse. Attacks are perpetrated on a daily basis, while many previously safe provinces are being ravaged by suicide bombings, murders and ambushes. Originally a peace-keeping mission, NATO-ISAF is now engaged in an unanticipated war, and Afghanistan is once again a hotbed for terrorists-in-training.
Failed counter-narcotics policies have intensified instability and entrenched poverty
The international community’s failed counter-narcotic schemes have destroyed many Afghans’ livelihoods, and further exacerbated the county’s already dire poverty crisis. Militarised counter-narcotics strategies have corroded confidence in the Afghan government and international community, and the Taliban is sweeping into power on the back of rural communities’ frustration and disappointment.
Recommendations
Recommendation I: International security forces must stop killing civilians
During security operations, international military coalition forces must stop killing civilians. Efforts must be made to distinguish between Taliban insurgents and Afghan civilians. Rules of engagement must be clarified. Following any civilian deaths, victims and their families must be properly informed on the origins of the incident, receive formal apologies and financial compensation. Whenever an accident has occurred, sanctions need to be taken quickly and transparently. Collateral damage, along with lack of respect and understanding for the local population is fuelling the insurgency and damaging Afghans’ perceptions of the international community.
Recommendation II: The international community must counter Taliban
Current Taliban propaganda, which leads Afghan civilians to believe that the international community are not there to help but instead are there for selfish reasons, must be countered effectively. An ideal way to do this is through sequenced, viable, alternative development projects that would enable Afghan farmers to survive on crops other than poppy. At the same time, US and NATO troops could kill two birds with one stone by building bridges between Muslims and westerners, who would help them win back the hearts and minds of the locals.
Recommendation III: Enable the delivery of emergency poverty relief
Accordingly, it is vital that the international community facilitates field activities of both international and local NGOs by providing security necessary for the safe delivery of aid programmes. In particular, international military forces could play a pivotal role in delivering food aid and necessary healthcare to insurgent areas. Indeed, this would work as a positive lever for international troops to win over the trust and support of local populations and to be associated more closely with sustainable reconstruction.
The international community has failed to create a stable and secure Afghanistan
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Field Report: Widespread instability and the return of the Taliban
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Taliban now control southern Afghanistan
Since 2001, the day-to-day security of ordinary Afghan people has deteriorated markedly. Despite the concerted focus on military and security issues in the country, the Taliban are tightening their grip on the southern half of Afghanistan. In addition to their current de facto military control of entire towns, districts, and neighbourhoods in the provinces’ capitals, the Taliban have psychological control over nearly half of Afghanistan. A doctor in Kandahar City reported that parents are no longer sending their daughters to school, women only rarely venture outdoors, and even then only when wearing a full burka. A number of men reported being stopped in the street and told to grow their beards.
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“The situation is worse each day. It is chaos and really hopeless. Kandahar will fall to the Taliban soon. People are now being very careful not to be against the Taliban and ‘keep the balance’ so that they will not be punished for supporting the foreigners when the Taliban return”
Police commander, Kandahar province
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Taliban have strong psychological grip on south
White Taliban flags waving all over the south attest to the Taliban’s extensive grip on the southern half of Afghanistan, with locals saying the Taliban are already preparing to consolidate their bases as the winter months approach. Contrary to positive statements from the international military forces, aid workers and police commanders in Kandahar and Helmand confirm that the Taliban have reinstated checkpoints and patrols in towns across the south, with the local police powerless to stop them. In villages and cities across the southern region, local people recognise among them once more members of the former Taliban ruling regime, and the black turbans typical of Taliban supporters are worn openly. A shopkeeper in Kandahar City said that Afghans working with foreign organisations in Kandahar or at the NATO-ISAF base at Kandahar airfield are routinely threatened by the Taliban. These workers have been told that unless they stop “supporting” the foreigners, they will suffer extreme forms of punishment. Locals have all heard reports of the bodies of an old woman and young man being displayed as a warning to others who “help” the foreigners, and in mid-August in Maiwand a local police chief was shot in a market in broad daylight.
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“There are Taliban all over Kandahar City now watching us and as soon as they have a chance, they will punish us for working with the non-believers.”
Tailor, Kandahar province
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'Hearts and minds’ lost due to failure to address Afghans’ needs
When international military forces first intervened in Afghanistan, much was made of the “winning of hearts and minds”, but this campaign has been lost. Locals assert that neither the “foreigners” nor the Afghan government had made any efforts to counteract the detrimental effects of drought, poverty and poppy eradication in their provinces, and locals’ apparent fear of the international military forces show that the ‘hearts and minds’ campaign has failed. Anger is now commonly expressed in southern Afghanistan, and many Afghans who supported the international forces now speak of them with hatred.
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“We are very, very angry and we want the Americans to leave”
Police commander, Kandahar
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Clearly increasing support for insurgent forces
Where the international forces have failed to win hearts and minds, the Taliban have made efforts to fill the gap in providing essential services. The large sums offered to their supporters prove that they are well-financed and well-organised, with a reported Taliban hospital base in Argandagh. Hospital workers interviewed in Kandahar were later heard to have been kidnapped by the Taliban, along with other medical staff. As well as reportedly providing medical services, a man who had his house robbed inside Kandahar City, having been told by the local police that they could do nothing, went to the Taliban in the city who found a culprit and took him away. Well-financed, and providing essential services that the international community and Afghan government have ignored, the Taliban are succeeding in trying to win the hearts and minds of a population searching for stability after yet another protracted war on their territory.
Taliban members openly lobbied field workers for their support. These Taliban promised that they had dropped the old cruel ways of the past, and claimed that there is “no choice but to fight” against the foreigners that kill their women and children, destroy their shrines and disrespect their traditions. In a time of poverty, many Afghans remember when the Taliban last had control and think they were materially better off. Terribly poor families in villages who have seen no aid have said they would be happy to see the return of the Taliban if they could feed their families.
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“In the villages, they had their crops destroyed, there is no water, no jobs, nothing to do – isn’t it fair that they go and join the Taliban? Wouldn’t you do the same thing?”
Worker, Kandahar City
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The Taliban offer substantial pay cheques
In an area in which many homes own an AK47 rifle, the teaching of terrorist techniques is once again taking place in southern Afghanistan. Former mujahedin commanders in Kandahar province have been offered large sums to join the Taliban, as well as ongoing payments to fighters of up to USD 500 a month. A Kandahar policeman said that these amounts far outweigh the wages many households can expect. His own salary is just USD 80 per month, but he has not been paid regularly.
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“The Taliban are paying the boys well to fight with them, and they are helping the villagers. I am not surprised the villagers are letting the boys go with the Taliban, they need money to feed their families.”
Local commander, Kandahar Province
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US actions confirm Taliban propaganda that US forces are incompetent
Several men in Kandahar province showed off propaganda DVDs and matchbooks “dropped from the sky by the Americans” offering cash for information about Osama Bin Laden. Locals were mystified as to why the Americans had made their reward offer in Dari, when everyone in Kandahar speaks Pashtu. Oversights such as this, together with the foreigners’ aggressive poppy eradication programmes, are being seized on by the Taliban as evidence of the international community’s ineptitude. Many Afghan people see clear links between insurgent training camps in Pakistan and the growing insurgency in southern Afghanistan. They know the border is not properly controlled, and wonder why the US allows foreigners to finance and train the anti-government fighters in Pakistan.
Insurgency seen as part of world war on Islam
The deterioration of the security situation is certainly seen within a global context, and people are increasingly linking the conflicts in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq with the situation in Afghanistan. In Kandahar province, several villagers asked whether this is the beginning of World War III. Some mentioned theories that the US and “the Jews” had teamed up to kill Muslims. During the recent war between Lebanon and Israel, locals reported hearing speeches in Kandahar City mosques inviting believers to fight against the non-Muslims who were linking together around the world to destroy Muslims.
Field report conclusions
In southern Afghanistan, locals perceive that international military coalition forces are increasingly being overrun by the Taliban. As the international military forces lose ground Afghans believe that they are taking their insecurities out on the civilian population. In some situations this clearly boosts support for the Taliban and other insurgent forces, demonstrating that unless the international community radically changes its military-based policy to ensure the economic and political stability of ordinary Afghans, the security situation will quickly deteriorate even further.
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