The Senlis Council has maintained an operational base in the southern provinces of Afghanistan since 2004. Initially aimed at providing a firsthand view of the burgeoning opium trade, this local presence in Kandahar and Helmand has enabled us to develop an expertise in many of the issues associated with poppy cultivation.

Building upon this foundation, The Senlis Council broadened its examination of other key theatres within the War on Terror, launching a research platform in Somalia – the first outside of Afghanistan – in March 2008. On the ground research in May 2008 a third conflict zone – Iraq – led to this report, and prompted The Senlis Council to consider an alternative approach to global security issues. In this report we offer a Situation Report (SITREP) on Iraq, as well as the initial findings from a series of interviews conducted in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia, and an examination of what we believe the study of the three conflicts tells us about current global security policy.
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The Senlis Council has studied the conflict dynamics in Afghanistan for over three years, and has used this as a base to compare the country with another key staging post in the United States’ self-proclaimed ‘War on Terror’ , Somalia. The conflict theatres of Somalia and Afghanistan share a number of similarities, not least regarding the tactics, techniques and motivations utilised by their respective insurgencies. Field research undertaken by The Senlis Council in both countries has enabled the identification of shared dynamics and the interplay between various levels of actor engaged in both conflicts.

These three levels of conflict can interact on any level, and be used to justify the actions of one actor at the expense of another. For instance, in the Afghan context, Pashtun tribes have used the US ‘War on Terror’ as a cover to try and settle old tribal scores by characterising opposing tribes as Taliban sympathisers or part of Al-Qaeda...
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With both Afghanistan and Somalia strongly affected by US policy, the results of this year’s US Presidential elections are critical for both countries.

In March and April 2008, a series of interviews were carried out in Afghanistan and Somalia to gauge the extent to which the United State Presidential Candidates were known in each of these countries, which candidates were favoured and why.
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The Senlis Council releases its latest recommendations to the US government concerning Afghanistan. It urges the United States Government to halt plans for forced poppy crop eradication in Afghanistan, and encourages George Bush to support a Poppy for Medicine initiative, which would see Afghan farmers licensed to grow their poppy for morphine.

NATO’s force size should also be doubled to 80,000 with all caveats removed as soon as logistically possible. As part of “NATO Plus”, the US should play a leading role within the alliance to create a new balance between military and humanitarian efforts within the stabilisation strategy to pursue an effective hearts and minds campaign.
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2008 is a pivotal year in the development of the Afghan state: the situation has reached a classic decision point. The Taliban are entrenched in the South, running parallel governments in several districts and controlling the majority of secondary roads. The extent of the challenges facing the country was brought into sharp focus by the bombing of the Serena Hotel in Kabul on 14 January. Should this event prove part of a consolidated drive by militants to engage in asymmetric attacks upon high profile, 'soft' Western civilian targets in the capital, then the insurgency will have entered a new and dangerous phase.

The inability of domestic and international actors to counter the entrenchment of the insurgency in Afghanistan is deeply troubling, and the failure of NATO’s political masters to address the realities of the security situation in Afghanistan has taken the country and the Karzai government to a precipice
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The main conclusions of the Manley Report presented to Prime Minister Harper echo The Senlis Council’s call for Canada to adopt a new overall strategic approach in Afghanistan.The Manley Panel’s report includes an extensive list of essential policy changes which address the full spectrum of issues facing Canada’s mission in Afghanistan: Canada should stay in Afghanistan until the job is done; more troops are needed from our NATO allies; Poppy for Medicine projects should be implemented as part of a coherent counter-narcotics policy; CIDA should be revamped; and the Kandahar hospital should be refurbished and renovated as a signature Canadian project. Although the Panel is not as clear on action items to deal with the Taliban and Al Qaeda bases in Pakistan as they could have been, their report does recognise the insurgent safe havens in Pakistan as a critical problem.
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The Independent Panel on Canada’s Future Role in Afghanistan was asked to investigate different options for Canada’s future policy towards Afghanistan, including the option of troop withdrawal. In this submission, The Senlis Council would like to argue that withdrawal is not an option. Leaving the country would be a national tragedy for both Afghanistan and Canada. Instead, with its key role on Afghanistan, Canada should take leadership on the international stage. It should exert a leadership role within NATO to increase both military involvement in Afghanistan, and humanitarian aid and development efforts.
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As a part of ongoing research on the Poppy for Medicine initiative for Afghanistan, the British pharmaceutical consulting firm Heathside Information Services Limited has undertaken research on the economics of processing raw poppy materials into morphine medicines in a small factory in Afghanistan. Based on the project model outlined in The Senlis Council’s June 2007 publication Poppy for Medicine, the resulting report is reproduced in full in Appendix I to this Case Study.

In addition, this Case Study examines the possibility of extending the Poppy for Medicine project model, and adapting the medicine factory accordingly, to add value to other locally-produced agricultural commodities. In particular, this Case Study explores the possible local manufacture of the malaria medicine Artemisinin in the local medicine factories. The extended Appendices to this Case Study provide extensive details of the economics of producing morphine in small local factories.
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The security situation in Afghanistan has reached crisis proportions. The Taliban's ability to establish a presence throughout the country is now proven beyond doubt; exclusive research undertaken by Senlis Afghanistan indicates that 54 per cent of Afghanistan’s landmass hosts a permanent Taliban presence, primarily in southern Afghanistan, and is subject to frequent hostile activity by the insurgency.

The Taliban are the de facto governing authority in significant portions of territory in the south and east, and are starting to control parts of the local economy and key infrastructure such as roads and energy supply. The insurgency also exercises a significant amount of psychological control, gaining more and more political legitimacy in the minds of the Afghan people who have a long history of shifting alliances and regime change.
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A companion report to the Peace Talks Simulation Game Afghanistan: A Way Out Of War?
Participants of the simulation game will be divided into diplomatic teams representing Afghanistan, Canada, Pakistan, the Taliban and the United States in the context of multilateral talks and debates, aiming to produce a hypothetical resolution to end the war in Afghanistan.
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This report is the result of research conducted by The Senlis Council in response to the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). As a reaction to our reports demonstrating that the work of CIDA was not visible in Kandahar, we were invited to verify their work for ourselves. The suffering of the Afghan people in Kandahar not only neglects our humanitarian obligations to our allies in Kandahar, it creates a climate that fuels the insurgency and undermines the already dangerous work of Canada’s military in this hostile war zone. more...

Polling Results in the UK, the US, Canada and the Netherlands:
Eight in Ten (81%) Support Poppy for Medicine Pilot Projects Three Quarters (74%) Would Use Afghan-Made Morphine Seven in Ten (74%) Oppose Chemical Spraying of Poppy Fields more...

The legitimate grievances of the Afghan people are successfully maximised by the Taliban in their propaganda campaign. Critically, this could allow the Taliban to progressively become a legitimate political movement in the southern part of the country. The United Kingdom and the international community risk losing what has been achieved so far in Afghanistan. more...

Technical Blueprint
June 2007

Licensing poppy for the production of essential medicines: an integrated counter-narcotics, development, and counter-insurgency model for Afghanistan.
Resolving Afghanistan's illegal opium crisis is the key to the international community's successful stabilisation and development in the country. Yet, by overemphasising failed counter-narcotics strategies such as forced poppy eradication, the United States-led international community has aggravated the security situation, precluding the very reconstruction and development necessary to remove Afghan farmers' need to cultivate poppy.
The Poppy for Medicine model provides a village-based solution to these challenges. more...

By Romesh Bhattacharji, former narcotics commissioner of India

Important lessons from the experiences of Indian farmers, administrators and security experts could inform the implementation of a Poppy for Medicine project in Afghanistan. The role played by the Indian farming villages, and in particular the role played by the village headman, in controlling poppy cultivation and limiting diversion in licensed poppy cultivation projects has empowered a variety of stakeholders. This lesson is particularly relevant with regards to the social control hierarchies present in Afghan rural societies. more...

Prime Minister Harper must undertake a major overhaul of Canada’s strategy in Afghanistan. The extreme poverty of southern Afghanistan, the growing disenchantment of the local population with the international presence, call for a dramatic overhaul of Canada’s development, aid and counter-narcotics polices there. Kandahar has seen a sharp rise in support for the insurgency in recent months. The province’s refugee camps are full of starving people, and have become easy recruiting ground for the Taliban. Civilian casualties continue to fuel local resentment against the foreign presence in Afghanistan. Kandahar’s hospitals are completely inadequate to deal with the war zone casualties or the basic health needs of the local population.

This report's recommendations call on the Canadian government to relieve CIDA of its responsibility for development efforts in Afghanistan. CIDA would be replaced by the appointment of a Special Envoy to Afghanistan to coordinate development, aid and counter-narcotics policy, with a development and aid budget equal to the military budget. more...

The Rapid Assessment Field Survey was carried out by a team of over fifty researchers polling 17,000 Afghan men in randomly selected districts in southern and eastern Afghanistan in the month of March, 2007. The Survey shows how rapidly the situation is deteriorating in these areas. Moreover, it underlines the need for an immediate reaction to this crisis. These findings are a clear indication that we are losing the support of the local population and that we are losing the battle for the hearts and minds in Afghanistan. The international community should quickly change course as there is no time to waste. Afghans must be convinced that their future lies with the democratically elected Afghan Government, and not with the Taliban.
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The international community’s military actions, particularly its bombing campaigns, are causing injury and death to innocent Afghan civilians, provoking anger and frustration among the local population. But the international community has yet to provide effective assistance to injured and displaced civilian casualties. The hospitals in Kandahar and Helmand are dilapidated, barren and filthy. The current situation of medical care in southern Afghanistan symbolises to Afghans the international community’s wilful neglect to support and partner the Afghan people in the meeting of vital health needs. A fraction of the money spent on military activities in Afghanistan could, however, significantly improve the quality of people’s lives, build trust, and win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people through the introduction of simple, inexpensive, low-technology health and infrastructure.
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With a rapid rise in violent insurgency, southern Afghanistan is at tipping point, and the international community’s counter-insurgency strategy is in urgent need of reassessment. Current counter-insurgency strategies, which so far have focused on military instruments and left out all non-military elements that form part of an effective strategy. What is required is a frank reassessment of the realities of the current insurgency dynamic, and the integration of humanitarian aid, economic development, health care and the development of the education system into the international community’s counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
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The Taliban are winning the battle for the hearts and minds in southern Afghanistan, and the international community is losing. As a result, NATO-ISAF troops are forced to fight in an increasingly hostile environment. What kind of realistic hearts and minds strategy can support the troops on the ground and make their mission successful? In a special documentary and a new report The Senlis Council reveals that the battle for the hearts and minds of the local population in southern Afghanistan will determine the outcome of the war.
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In the past five years that Canada has been active in Afghanistan, the Canadian forces have done a brave job under extreme circumstances. However, the Canadian mission is still much too focused on military-based strategies, and has failed to tackle the root causes of growing insurgency and insecurity. A new approach could break this circle of poverty, insecurity and violence and could produce a winning strategy for Afghanistan.
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The Taliban have regained control over the southern half of Afghanistan and their frontline is advancing daily, warned The Senlis Council on the release of an evaluation report of the reconstruction of Afghanistan marking the five year anniversary of 9/11. The Report is based on extensive field research in the critical provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Herat and Nangarhar.
The Taliban frontline now cuts half-way through the country, encompassing all of the southern provinces. Senlis Afghanistan reports that five years after the 2001 US-led invasion, a humanitarian crisis of starvation and poverty has gripped the south of the country and that the US and UK-led failed counter-narcotics and military policies are responsible. The subsequent rising levels of extreme poverty have created increasing support for the Taliban, who have responded to the needs of the local population.
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Canadian troops and Afghan civilians are paying with their lives for Canada's adherence to the US government's failing military and counter-narcotics policies in Kandahar. The US-led counter-terrorist operations and militaristic poppy eradication strategies have triggered a new war with the Taliban and other insurgent groups, and are causing countless civilian deaths. To a large extent, it can be said that Operation Enduring Freedom and the related militaristic counter-narcotics policies are significant contributors to the current state of war in Kandahar and the other southern provinces. Canada and the international community continue to unquestioningly accept America's fundamentally flawed policy approach in southern Afghanistan, thereby jeopardising the success of military operations in the region and the stabilisation, reconstruction and development mission objectives.
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Effective control lies at the very heart of a fully functioning poppy licensing system. This paper presents an analysis of how such control might be attained. It is clear that formal, state governance structures alone are insufficient to propagate effective, nationwide control. Rather, effective control of a poppy licensing system can only be achieved through the integration of traditional, local governance with and alongside state institutions and processes. The model control system presented here proposes to integrate existing formal and informal local level social control structures with formal, state government institutions, maximising the capacities and aptitude of both for the efficient and extensive control of licensed poppy cultivation.
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The Afghanistan Insurgency Assessment Report, released on 7 April 2006, warns of increased violence in the southern provinces of Helmand, Kandahar and Nangarhar where the majority of foreign troops are deployed.
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Turkey’s successful transition from a culture of widespread, unregulated poppy cultivation to a licensed, controlled system of poppy cultivation for the production of medicines provides an interesting model for Afghanistan.
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Helmand is at war, once again. The nature of instability in Helmand has shifted from random insurgency to a state of prolonged and organised violence that threatens the very foundations of the new Afghanistan. The nature of the insurgency has changed and is now perceived by the local population as an acceptable power holder. Increasing levels of extreme poverty and violence have led to a critical point in Afghanistan instability. A violent struggle between insurgents and the legitimate actors for control and order in Helmand is now underway.
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This Phase Two paper of the Feasibility Study On Opium Licensing in Afghanistan for the Production of Morphine and Other Essential Medicines assesses the impact of current and future eradication efforts in Afghanistan while drawing parallels with the impact of similar policies already carried out in South East Asian and Latin America.
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The initial findings in this Feasibility Study mark the first phase of an academic investigation into the methods and implications of licensing opium production in Afghanistan for the production of morphine and other ‘essential medicines’ . The scope and complexity of this undertaking has demanded an examination through the lens of a number of academic disciplines: pharmacology, agriculture, medicine, sociology, politics, economics and law.
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The book outlines various opportunities for a new international drug regime and proposes a new Fourth Framework Convention. This incorporates measures for promoting public health through substitution treatment, prevention, education and alternative development, as well as the evaluation and application of such measures.
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Through high-level keynote speeches, panels and workshops, the Lisbon International Symposium participants discussed new drug policy ideas and innovative solutions. This publication is a compilation of the speeches that were delivered.
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This paper describes and evaluates the options highlighted in the context of key scenarios for reform. The legal consequences which are consequences of the different options are addressed. One conclusion is that a route to Convention reform may be founded on collective action based on alliances between like-minded states.
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The review of the current international drug system, drafted for the Network of European Foundations Comité des Sages. The selection of articles covers various components of the drug issue and the possible implications and influence of alternative policies on the current drug control system.
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Drug policy under Colonial time: Lessons from the Past: Drugs have not always been part of a repressive drug control regime. In colonial times, the governing powers (particularly the UK and France) regulated and taxed the drug distribution system.
From alcohol prohibition to regulation: It is often said that ending the repressive drug control system is an unknown process, for which we have no existing know-how. However, the United States have already lived through such a procedure. contents...

This background paper, prepared for the September 2002 Comité des Sages Meeting, provides a brief summary of the positions (stated or implicit), interests and potential contributions of various UN agencies regarding reform of the three main international conventions on illicit drugs.
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Texts of the three United Nations Treaties: 1961, 1971 and 1988. contents...